Wednesday, February 28, 2007

TAU – Roma under 152,5 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (99:56) lose
Dinamo Moscow – Unicaja (5,5) 1 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (86:80) win
Prokom – Panathinaikos under 152,5 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (69:75) win

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Gol da metà campo di Martin Palermo

Uleb Cup
UNICS Kazan - Montepaschi SI(5,5) 1 @ 1,85 stake 7/10 (83:53) win
Hapoel Jerusalem - FMP(6) 2 @ 1,85 stake 6/10 (88:79) lose
Hapoel Jerusalem - FMP over 161,5 stake 6/10 (167) win
Strasbourg - Lietuvos Rytas under 153,5 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (153) win
Crvena Zvezda - Real Madrid over 161 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (72:83) lose

Monday, February 26, 2007

FA Cup preview
The first piece of domestic silverware was settled on Sunday but not before the heavyweight battle had provoked a mass brawl. Many critics had suggested the League Cup was meaningless, but the huge dust-up in Cardiff said otherwise. The FA Cup - the oldest domestic knock-out tournament in the world - now takes centre-stage, with three midweek replays all expected to produce just as much passion, as the chance of a place in the first final at the new Wembley gets that bit closer. With each of the ties equally difficult to call, the margins of success are likely to be slim, but at PinnacleSports bettors can find themselves up to 60% better off.

Ferguson Facing Tough Team Decisions
All good things must come to an end, and Reading fans would rather that a nine game unbeaten run ended at the Riverside on Saturday, than on Tuesday in their mouth-watering FA Cup replay at home to Manchester United. At least the Royals maintained an excellent scoring record, finding the net for the twelfth consecutive game in the 2-1 defeat at Middlesbrough, which would suggest that United will have to be at the top of their game to progress in normal time.

Alex Ferguson was visibly delighted that his side came through against Fulham on Saturday in what he considered to be United's hardest test of the Premiership season so far. Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney proved once more just how critical they are to the club's success. Ronney set-up Ryan Giggs for the equaliser, while Ronaldo's 88th minute goal was enough to give the Red Devils a nine-point advantage at the top of the table. Fergie must now decide whether to risk his prize assets in this FA Cup replay, given the critical game at Anfield on Saturday, and Champions League second leg next week. PinnacleSports have Reading 1.935 (+0.5 & +1) and United 1.990 (-0.5 & -1).

Mowbray Looking to Knock-out his Hometown Team

West Brom manager, Tony Mowbray, will be looking to put one over his home-town team, who he represented 345 times as a player. Since taking over as coach of the Midlands club in October, the Baggies have rocketed up the Championship table, and could be facing Boro next season in the Premiership, which is a greater priority than the FA Cup. West Brom should still turn out a full strength side of experienced players, and will have tremendous support at the Hawthorns. PinnacleSports rate them 1.862 (0/scratch).

Boro have enjoyed more success in cup competitions than the league, making it to the last four of this competition last season, as well as the final of the UEFA Cup. The Teessiders normally guarantee excitement - beating another Championship side, Hull, 4-3 in Round three, while needing a replay, extra-time and penalties to finally shake off Division One side, Bristol City in the previous round. Forwards Yakubu and Mark Viduka have been in sparkling form, and should be expected to contribute again here. Pinnacle Sports have Boro 2.07 (0/scratch).

Arsenal Expecting Another Scrap at Ewood Park
Arsenal's defeat in the Carling Cup ended in disgrace with a 14 man brawl and two red cards. The punishments for that fracas are pending, but Arsene Wenger will be expecting another bruising encounter away to Ewood Park. The Gunners were held to a frustrating goalless draw in the original encounter at the Emirates Stadium but should enjoy more freedom as the away side. The Londoners faced a similar scenario in the previous round, having been held by Bolton at home, they played some exhilarating counter-attacking football to progress in extra-time at the Reebok.

Blackburn bounced back from a demoralising UEFA Cup exit by thrashing Portsmouth 3-0 at Ewood Park on Sunday. Rovers were boosted by the return of Morten Gamst Pedersen, and should be fired up for this clash. Arsenal have however, won on three of the last four visits, so Mark Hughes side will have to raise their game to a new level to get a positive result. On that basis PinnacleSports have Arsenal marginal favourites on a split-ball handicap 1.917 (0/scratch & -0.5), with Blackburn 2.01 (0/scratch & +0.5).

60% better odds at PinnacleSports !
Duisburg - Hansa Rostock 1 @ 2,00 stake 3/10 (1:2) lose

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Premiata Montegr. - Snaidero UD over155,5 @ 1,85 stake 6/10 (86:77) win
Borussia Mönch. - Werder Bremen 2 @ 2,00 stake 7/10 (2:2) lose
SC Freiburg - Erzgeb. Aue 1 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (5:4) win
Delemont - Servette 2 @ ,185 stake 7/10 (1:1) lose
Ticket of the day:
Kaiserslautern - Unterhaching 1 @ 1,60 (4:0)
Fiorentina - Empoli 1 @ 1,60 (2:0)
stake 6/10 WIN

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Serbian League
Crvena Zvezda - Partizan 1 @ 2,25 stake 6/10 (2:4) lose
Netherlands Eredivisie
Sparta - Heracles 1 @ 1.85 stake 8/10 (0:0) lose
Germany - 1. Bundesliga
Energie Cottbus - Bielefeld 1 @ 2.3 stake 5/10 (2:1) win
Sotland - Division 3
Arbroath - Berwick 1 @ 2.45 stake 4/10 (1:0) win
Russia - Superleague A
CSKA Moscow - Standart Samarskiy(35) 1 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 (106:66) win

Friday, February 23, 2007

FC Zwolle - Telstar 1 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (2:1) win
Istres - Tours 1 @ 1,95 stake 4/10 (2:1) win
VfB Stuttgart - Hertha BSC 1 @ 1,80 stake 4/10 (0:0) lose
Ticket of the day:
Club Brugge - Sint Truiden 1 @ 1,35 (1:0)
Sporting Lisabon - Aves 1 @ 1,2 (0:0)
Fortuna Sittard - RBC Roosendaal 2 @ 1,55 (2:2)
stake 4/10 lose

Thursday, February 22, 2007

European basketball
Joventut(1,5) - Olympiakos 1 @ 1,90 stake 5/10 (58:56) win
Pau Orthez(7) - TAU 1 @ 1,85 stake 6/10 (89:99) lose

Wednesday, February 21, 2007


The Departed, Scorsese, Whitaker, Mirren, Murphy and Hudson Oscar Favorites

WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (February 21, 2007)-With the 79th Annual Academy Awards only days away, Pinnacle Sports today announced updated odds on the seven major Oscar categories recognizing excellence in motion pictures. Pinnacle Sports was the first bookmaker in the world to offer odds on this year's Oscars, releasing betting lines just minutes after the nominees were announced last month.

Heading into Sunday's award ceremony, The Departed has been pegged as the early favorite to win the Oscar for Best Motion Picture (1/1) and Best Director for Martin Scorsese (1/6). Pinnacle Sports lists Forest Whitaker as the favorite to capture Best Actor honors for his role in The Last King of Scotland at 1/6 odds. Meanwhile, Helen Mirren is a virtual lock to win Best Actress listed as an overwhelming 1/32 (i.e., win $1 for every $32 bet) favorite to win the award for her role in The Queen. Although Dreamgirls was not nominated for Best Picture, Eddie Murphy (2/3) and Jennifer Hudson (2/7) are favored to capture the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor and Actress, respectively.

All eyes will be on Hollywood's finest as the winners are announced during the awards ceremony on Sunday, February 25th. Below are the current odds offered by Pinnacle Sports with nominees appearing in descending order from favorites to long shots under each category heading.

Current Odds: *All odds are subject to change*

Best Motion Picture:
The Departed 1/1
Little Miss Sunshine 3/1
Babel 7/2
Letters From Iwo Jima 15/1
The Queen 17/1

Best Director:
Martin Scorsese 1/6
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 9/1
Clint Eastwood 19/1
Paul Greengrass 21/1
Stephen Frears 36/1

Best Actor:
Forest Whitaker 1/6
Peter O'Toole 7/1
Leonardo DiCaprio 18/1
Will Smith 40/1
Ryan Gosling 70/1

Best Actress:
Helen Mirren 1/32
Meryl Streep 19/1
Kate Winslet 32/1
Penelope Cruz 32/1
Judi Dench 39/1

Best Supporting Actor:
Eddie Murphy 2/3
Alan Arkin 5/2
Djimon Hounsou 15/1
Jackie Earle Haley 16/1
Mark Wahlberg 26/1

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Hudson 2/7
Abigail Breslin 7/1
Cate Blanchett 16/1
Rinko Kikuchi 19/1
Adriana Barraza 32/1
CSKA - Partizan(5) 1 first quarter @ 1,90 stake 7/10 (21:14) win
CSKA - Partizan(8) 1 half time @ 1,90 stake 10/10 (37:27) WIN
Panathinaikos - Barcelona(8,5) 2 @ 1,96 stake 6/10 (102-82) lose

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Stafford Rangers - Stevenage 2 @ 2,4 stake 4/10 (1:3) win
Peterborugh - Boston 1 @ 1,78 stake 6/10 (1:1) lose
Northwich - Altrincham 1 @ 2,23 stake 5/10 (1:1) lose

Monday, February 19, 2007

England - Championship
Preston - Norwich 1 @ 1,65 stake 5/10 (2:1) win
.... for Thursday ........
Joventut - Olympiakos over162.5 @ 1,95 stake 7/10 (58:56) lose
odds by Pinnacle Sports

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Huelva - Real Sociedad 1 @ 2.05 stake 4/10 (1:0) win
Marseille - Nantes 1 @ 1.6 stake 4/10 (0:0) lose
AEK Athens - Panathinaikos 1 @ 2.65 stake 3/10 (1:4) lose

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Cardiff - Leeds 1 @ 1,87 stake 6/10 (1:0) win
Pacos Ferreira - Sporting 2 @ 1,90 stake 5/10 (1:1) lose
KSK Beveren - Lokeren 2 @ 3,35 stake 3/10 (3:2) lose
KK Partizan - KK Zagreb over160 @ 1,90 stake 8/10 (90:73) WIN

Friday, February 16, 2007

Champions League Super 16 Preview

The cream of Europe domestic soccer has risen to the top as 16 teams approach the knock-out phase of the Champions League. With ten former European champions among them, it is no easy task to find the winner. Chelsea are the Premiership's leading contender, vying for outright favouritism with holders Barcelona at Pinnacle Sports , the internet's leading online bookmaker offering up to 60% better Champions League odds than the competition.

If you're confident one of the pair will be celebrating under the ticker-tape at Athen's Olympic Arena in May, Pinnacle Sports has priced the duo 2.55, versus the field, 1.606. To get to the final, the reigning champions must first negotiate the tie of the round, meeting the 2005 winners, Liverpool.

Barca swept all before them last season, successfully defending their La Liga title and winning this competition in Paris, but that air of invincibility was missing in the Group phase. The Reds have the benefit of playing the second leg at Anfield, so the Catalans will be keen to gain an advantage from Wednesday's tie at the Nou Camp, priced 2.10 (-1) at Pinnacle Sports , with Liverpool 1.833 (+1).

When Porto and Chelsea were drawn together, a wry smile formed across Jose Mourinho's face. The Special One left the Portuguese side after success in this competition in 2004, to begin a revolution at Stamford Bridge. Mourinho's departure was the catalyst for a mass exodus of the talent that had also brought the Dragoes UEFA Cup success in 2003.

Nevertheless, Porto are still the leading force in Portuguese football, but rates them as slight underdogs 2.07 (0/scratch & 0.5) despite home advantage, with Chelsea 1.862 (0/scratch & -0.5) looking to take a lead back to Stamford Bridge.

Despite qualifying for his pension, Alex Ferguson's enthusiasm for the game is undiminished, but the Scot may consider retirement if he could repeat the success he enjoyed in this competition in 1999. Though you will hear the cliche about 'no easy games at this level', Lille are 100/1 with Pinnacle Sports
for overall success. Surprisingly they contributed to United's humiliating early exit last year winning the most recent of four meetings. Out for revenge, the Red Devils are 2.05 (-0.5) for the game at the tiny Stade Lille-Metropole, looking for Rooney and Ronaldo to continue their inspirational form, while the French minnows are 1.877 (+0.5).

Though Celtic have finally broken their Champions League duck, qualifying for the knock-out stages at the fourth attempt, Hoops fans will be acutely aware that the club are still seeking their first Champions League success on the continent - with one draw and 11 defeats from 12 attempts.

In contrast, Celtic's Champions League record at Parkhead is quite imposing, (including qualifying games) they have only lost one of the last 19 games. If the Bhoys are to stand any chance of getting past AC Milan, they must surely take a comfortable lead to the San Siro. Celtic lost 3-1 in Italy when the sides met three years ago, with the return leg finishing goalless. For Tuesday's crunch game Pinnacle Sports price Celtic 1.952 (0/scratch & +0.5) with Milan 1.971 (0/scratch & -0.5)

Arsense Wenger will be hoping that his young-Gunners can build on the experience of the last campaign where Arsenal made it all the way to the final eventually losing 2-1 to Barcelona which ended a record-breaking sequence of ten consecutive clean sheets in this competition.

As Arsenal topped their group, they earned the right to play their second leg against Dutch Champions PSV at the Emirates Stadium where they remain unbeaten. The Farmers came agonisingly close to a final appearance in 2005, when a young side pushed AC Milan all the way. However, as is often the case with promising Dutch sides, the team's most promising stars left for Europe's better paid leagues, and Ronald Koeman's side face a real challenge to progress to the quarter-finals. However, for this first leg in Holland Pinnacle Sports cannot separate the sides on their Asian Handicap pricing PSV 2.10 (0/scratch), with Arsenal 1.833 (0/scratch).

Elsewhere former European heavyweights Real Madrid and Bayern Munich slug it out to try to rebuild their fading reputations, while Inter Milan look to transfer their record breaking winning streak in Serie A to Europe. The Nerazzurri face Valencia, finalists in 2000 and 2001, who cruised through topping Group D. The line-up for the knock-out phase it completed by Roma and Lyon, both considered dangerous dark horses.
Netherlands - Jupiler League
Agovv - FC Zwolle 1 @ 2,60 stake 4/10 (1:2) lose
Dordrecht - Den Bosch 1 @ 1.95 stake 5/10 (0:4) lose
Netherlands - Eredivisie
Willem II - Den Haag 1 @ 1.95 stake 6/10 (2:1) win

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Formula One Analysis

Formula Enters A New Era

A new era in F1 will begin on March 18th at Melbourne’s Albert Park. After 15 eventful years in the sport, seven-time World Champion Michael Schumacher will be missing from the grid. Schumi and Ferrari’s unprecedented domination of the sport at the turn of the century - winning five straight titles from 2000-04 – created a lasting legacy by effectively forcing FIA, the sport’s governing body, to reassess the competitiveness of Formula One racing.


Last year Team McLaren Mercedes suffered its first winless season since 1996, as the team continued to be plagued by engine reliability problems. Team Principal, Ron Dennis has however pulled off two major coups for this season. Dennis has poached double world champion, Fernando Alonso from Renault and big-money sponsors, Vodafone from Ferrari. Pinnacle Sports now list McLaren as second-favourites in the Constructors’ title with odds that offer up to 50% better value than other bookmakers.

The team will start with a totally new driving line-up in 2007 as in addition to Alonso, Brit Lewis Hamilton becomes the first black driver in F1 history. Though the British media will undoubtedly hype Hamilton, little should be expected of the 2006 GP2 Series Champion in his rookie season.


In a make or break season for Ferrari - the most successful team of the decade - initial testing suggests the Prancing Horse may have the upper hand after two unsuccessful seasons. However, stability is often cited as a major factor of success in motor sport. This could put Ferrari up against it, given the sabbatical of technical director Ross Brawn, which is the most significant of several back-room changes.

Kimi Raikkonen replaces Schumacher and is currently favourite to take the 2007 drivers crown. However, many question Raikkonen’s willingness to emulate the tireless preparation and attention to detail for which Schumi rarely got the credit he deserved. The lurid stories of the Finn’s drunken antics are in stark contrast to Schumacher’s professionalism. Young Brazilian Felippe Massa, is Ferrari’s number two and though displaying erratic tendencies, he is a fast driver with plenty of promise.

Renault could really struggle this year, and not just because of the defection of Alonso. In the second half of last season, they again failed to develop their car at the same rate as their main competitors. Giancarlo Fisichella, who has scored only two wins during the past two years and seemingly had his limitations thoroughly exposed at the top level, will likely lead the team while test driver Heikki Kovalainen, is promoted to the second race seat.

Having undergone the least disruption of the major teams Honda would appear to have their best chance yet of nicking a title. Jenson Button ended last season as the top-scoring driver over the final six races, while the team successfully homologated a much improved engine over the final two races which they will be able to use this year.


Since entering F1 in 2002 with a rumoured unlimited budget, Toyota have proved perennial disappointments, still seeking their first race win. Their pace is famously inconsistent, as is their reliability, while their driver pairing of Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli is considered by many to be too weak to provide a championship challenge.

Red Bull Racing

If any of the remaining constructors were to land the title it would be a major surprise according to the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports . Though BMW are reliable and have supplied winning engines, neither Nick Heidfeld nor Robert Kubica have winning experience. Red Bull Racing are the playboys of the paddock although David Coulthard scored the team’s first podium finish at last year’s Monaco GP. Though they have high hopes for this year’s Adrian Newey-designed, Renault-powered car, the team cannot be considered realistic challengers.


Williams made a bright start to last season with Nico Rosberg’s fastest lap in the season-opener in Bahrain. However, it was all downhill from there as the team lacked the budget to keep the pace of development with the richer teams. Sadly, the future does not look bright for the once all-conquering team. With no serious backing from a major motor manufacturer, they look set for a repeat of 2006’s frustrations.

Toro Rosso & Spkyer
Toro Rosso gained just one point last season while Spyker ended the season empty-handed. Both will be powered by Ferrari engines, but the comparisons end there. Super Aguri – heavily backed by Honda – did make great strides last year, but were also another team that failed to score.
Maccabi T.A. - TAU over 165,5 @ 1,90 stake 7/10 (68:79) lose
Barcelona - Prokom Trefl(15) 1 @ 1,85 stake 7/10 (92:73) win
Barcelona - Prokom Trefl(8,5) half time 1 @ 1,85 stake 8/10 (68:46) win

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Virtus Roma - Pau Orthez under 146,5 stake 6/10 (78:68) win
CSKA - Joventut(5.5) 1 half time @ 1,85 stake 7/10 (45:45) lose
CSKA - Joventut(10.5) 1 @ 1,85 stake 7/10 (81:69) win
Partizan - Olympiakos over 157.5 @ 1,9 stake 5/10 (92:84) win
Partizan(3.5) - Olympiakos 1 @ 1,90 stake 6/10 (92:84) lose

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Uleb Cup
Khimki - Crvena Zvezda (10) 1 @ 1.9 stake 9/10 (76:93) lose
FMP - Gran Canaria(7,5) 2 @ 1.9 stake 7/10 (70:64) win

Monday, February 12, 2007

Germany - 2. Bundesliga
Duisburg - Karlsruher SC over2,5 @ 1,7 stake 2/10 (2:1) win

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Celta de Vigo - Espanyol 1 @ 2.35 stake 6/10 (0:2) lose
Fiorentina - Udinese 1 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 (2:0) win
ticket #1
Palermo - Empoli 1 @ 1.6 (0:1)
Roma - Parma 1 @ 1.3 (3:0)
stake 6/10 lose
ticket #2
Olympiacos CFP - Iraklis 1 @ 1.2 (2:0)
Panathinaikos - OFI Crete 1 @ 1.15 (2:2)
FC Barcelona - Racing Santander 1 @ 1.3 (2:0)
stake 6/10 lose

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Scotland - Division 3
East Stirling - Queens Park 2 @ 1,8 stake 4/10 (0:2) win
Belgium - Jupiler League
Moeskroen - Beveren 1 @ 1,9 stake 6/10 (4:2) win
Germany - 1.Bundesliga
Borussia Mönch. - Alemannia Aachen 1 @ 1,9 stake 5/10 (0:0) lose
Netherlands - Eredivisie
RKC Waalwijk v Heracles 1 @ 2,10 stake 6/10 (2:0) win

Friday, February 09, 2007

Coppa Italia
Benetton TV - Lottomatica RM (2.5) 2 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (75:67) lose
Netherlands - Jupiler League
Agovv - TOP Oss 1 @ 2,10 stake 6/10 (0:2) lose

Thursday, February 08, 2007

GROBARI (Partizan - Unicaja)

I should post this earlier...

SAC Kings(+2) - CHI Bulls 2 @ 1,91 stake 3/10 (86:77) lose
PHI Flyers - PIT Penguins 2 @ 2,10 stake 3/10 (4:4) lose

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Slovenia - Estonia 1 @ 1,60 stake 8/10 (1:0) win

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Bristol R - Darlington 1 @ 1.9 stake 5/10 (1:2) lose
POR Trailblazers - PHX Suns under 209.5 @ 1,85 stake 6/10 (96:96) win
Australia - Denmark [N] 2 @ 2,25 stake 5/10 (1:3) win

Monday, February 05, 2007

Germany - 2. Bundesliga
1860 München - W. Burghausen 1 @ 1,65 stake 6/10 (5:1) win

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Adriatic League
C.Zvezda(+1) - Partizan 1 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (76:88) lose
C.Zvezda - Partizan over164 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (76:88)lose
Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts - Chicago Bears(6.5) 1 @ 1,90 stake 8/10 (29:17) win
Italy - Lega 1
Benetton - Cantu(5) 1 half time @ 1,85 stake 7/10 (29:42) lose
Montepaschi - Bipop(13.5) 1 @ 1,90 stake 6/10 (85:78) lose
Virtus Bologna - Snaidero over 165.5 @ 1,90stake 5/10 (80:62) lose

Saturday, February 03, 2007

AS Monaco - Auxerre 1 @ 2,05 stake 4/10 (2:1) win
Roeselare - Moeskroen 1 @ 1.8 stake 5/10 (2:1) win
Sochaux - Rennes 1 @ 2.05 stake 4/10 (2:1) win
Nancy - Toulouse 1 @ 2.2 stake 4/10 (2:1) win

Friday, February 02, 2007

Germany - 1. Bundesliga
1. FC Nürnberg - Bayern München 2 @ 2,00 stake 5/10 (3:0) lose
Super Bowl Propositions - The Achilles' Heel of Square Books

According to USA Today, half of all Americans will wager on the Super Bowl, as a result, 90% of bets on the game are made by novice gamblers. Aware of the opportunity to attract new customers, sportsbooks understandably focus an enormous amount of energy on the biggest game on the sports schedule. The most successful approach to excite these armchair bettors is to offer propositions that promise potentially big returns for a very modest outlay, and those that focus on seemingly random or humorous events.

The problem that books face with this approach is that often just one odds maker is pricing the lines based on variables that he has far less reliable data on than he is used to. These propositions can be the easiest for an educated player to beat and sportsbooks routinely lose money on them. Propositions are a loss-leader for the betting world to tempt new bettors who will end up losing money on one of the more lucrative areas for the bookie. To protect themselves in this unusually vulnerable situation, sportsbooks build in inordinately large margins - typically using a 30 or 40-cent line with low wagering limits - yet will often consider a break-even result a success.

When you wager on a proposition, it's typically your opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get the best of it. For Super Bowl XLI, Pinnacle Sportsbook is offering over 200 props with many priced to world beating 15-cent margins, a significant savings versus the 30 to 40-cent lines at other online books.

With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it's not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting, there are several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on our props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting towards the original price). Therefore, the 'Pinnacle Lean' is useful for measuring market prices on props as well as on sides and totals. For example, is offering the following prop: 'Who will score the first TD?' at Colts -145/Bears +130. This suggests that the no-vig price based on our 15-cent line is -137.5/+137.5. Therefore, you can 'play the lean' if you find another book with the Yes at -136.5, or the No at +138.5.

The biggest mistake that players and odds makers make when evaluating props is in not understanding the difference between the median and the mean (average). Most players would assume that the average (total/frequency) is an accurate measure, but the correct way to analyze many of these types of props is to use the median. Looking at a list of theoretical score lengths in ascending order, the median is the middle number:

20 (median)

If you assumed before Sunday's game that these seven scores would occur, and assessed the prop 'Will the first score be more than 24.5 yards?' you'd price the 'No' knowing the under would hit four out of seven times, making the no-vig price on the 'No' -133 or (-4/3*100). Whereas if you took the average it would give you another answer (26.3), and lead you to the very different and misleading conclusion that the over is more likely.

Although this concept is simple and rather obvious, it will pay dividends to anyone who is prepared to spend time calculating the median. The median is useful on all types of props - from 'length of first rush' to the 'longest/shortest' props (where you use the median result from games for the whole season). In fact, there are two straightforward ways to accurately price these types of props.

First, you'll want to use as much data as possible. Since the Colts have played 19 games and Chicago has played 18 games, this gives you a much better estimate of a fair mid-point. Secondly, you should also consider adjusting your data for the opponent, perhaps ignoring some data for games that aren't similar to their Super Bowl opponent. Sharp bettors might only use data where both teams were playing under similar spread scenarios (though this might produce a small sample for the Bears).

What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports Book?

Chicago +6.5 +103 vs. Indianapolis

It appears like our opening line of Indianapolis -6.5 is solid, as we haven't had to move off the number just yet. In the nearly two weeks since the Conference Championships, the Super Bowl line has only moved four cents from -115 to -111. Public opinion of the AFC being the stronger conference has been evident throughout, while the larger volume bets have come in on the Bears. While the line is standing at 6.5 (-111), it could easily move to the 7 on Sunday when we expect a flurry of bets before kickoff.

Chicago vs. Indianapolis Under 48 points -115
The Super Bowl total opened at 48.5 with two-way betting to start although the heavier volume came in on the under pushing the line down a few cents. This was followed by many small wagers on the over, mixed in with plays on the under. The line was pushed down to 48 after several large plays on the under from our sharper players. Although we've received three times as many plays on the over, the larger volume on the under has the line standing at -115 on the under, which could move another half point by kickoff on Sunday to 47.5.

Chicago +3.5 -102 vs. Indianapolis 1st Half
Indianapolis opened as 4-point favorites in the first half at -111. All of the early betting for the Super Bowl first half line was on Chicago, dropping the line to 3.5 before we saw any buyback on the Colts. The line has since settled at 3.5 where we are seeing more balanced action.

Chicago vs. Indianapolis 1st Half Under 24.5 -132

We opened the first half total at 24.5 with the under a -125 favorite. Early betting clearly favored the over with some mixed buyback on the under. The line has been lowered seven cents due to the game total being lowered even though we've received five times more plays on the first half over.

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Maccabi - Pao over166.5 @ 1,85 stake 6/10 (76:73)lose
Olympiakos - Keln(8) 1 half time @ 1,85 stake 6/10 (47:37) win
Olympiakos - Keln over159.5 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (77:73)lose
Partizan - Unicaja(4.5) 2 @ 1,85 stake 5/10 (83:83)win
Partizan - Unicaja under149.5 @ 1,85 stake 7/10 (83:83)lose
Location: Serbia

Powered by Blogger

Subscribe in NewsGator Online Add to Google Blogz Web Counter
Web Counter

Subscribe to
Posts [Atom]