NBA
LA Clippers - NY Knicks(6.5) 1 @ 1.91 stake 4/10 win

USA - NHL
EDM Oilers - VAN Canucks 1 @ 1.69 stake 6/10 lose
NAS Predators - BOS Bruins 1 @ 1.50 stake 4/10 win
PHX Coyotes - SJ Sharks 2 @ 1.53 stake 4/10 lose

Scotland Division 3
Albion Rovers - East Stirling 1 @ 1.65 stake 8/10 win
Arbroath - East Fife 1 @ 2.35 stake 5/10 lose
England Premiership
Blackburn - Middlesbrough 1 @ 1.95 stake 5/10 win
West Ham - Manchester City 1 @ 2.05 stake 5/10 lose

Pinnacle Weekend Premiership Analysis

Matches Played December 30th
Saturday’s fixtures are the last of 2006, so if one of your New Year’s resolution is to be a more successful gambler, sign-up with Pinnacle Sports offering up to 60% better odds than the opposition, and a smarter way to bet.


Chelsea Struggling Without Inspirational Captain
After riding their luck over the Christmas period fortune finally turned against Chelsea on Boxing Day. The Blues’ 2-2 draw at home to Reading leaves them four points behind Manchester United at the top of the Premiership table. Jose Mourinho’s side have now conceded twice in each of their last three league games, something that has never happened under his management, and this defensive frailty is clearly linked to the absence of captain, John Terry. In the 16 Premiership games played by Terry this season, Chelsea conceded nine goals and kept 10 clean sheets.

The Champions’ next game is a London Derby at home to Fulham, where despite the recent wobble, they still boast an unbeaten home record stretching back 54 games; Pinnacle Sports has them as favourites 1.820 (-1.5 & -2.0). This price is backed up by Chelsea’s impressive record against Fulham. The Cottagers have won just one of eleven Premiership meetings and have one of the division’s worst away defensive records. Chris Coleman’s side have lost their last two away games without scoring, and have won just once on the road this term (all they managed in the whole of last season). Given that record, Pinnacle Sports rate Fulham 2.12 (+1.5 & +2.0).


Royals Face First Ever League Fixture at Old Trafford
Chelsea will be hoping Reading repeat their heroics at Stamford Bridge facing the Red Devils at Old Trafford on Saturday afternoon. Manchester United are unquestionably the Premiership’s form side, scoring three times in winning each of their last four home ties in all competitions. Pinnacle Sports clearly expect United to do a better job against Reading than Chelsea did on Tuesday rating them 2.02 (-1.5 & -2.0).

Though the Royals’ draw at Stamford Bridge was creditable, and in part the reward for a tactical rethink by Coppell, the only team to win at Old Trafford this season is Arsenal, and Reading’s recent form is uninspiring, as they are without a win in their last five games. Reading’s players should be motivated by the fact this is the club’s first ever league meeting with Manchester United. The inspiration of playing in front of 76,000 fans should lift the visitors’ players, and ensure that the home side don’t have it all their own way. Pinnacle Sports rate the away side 1.909 (+1.5 & +2.0).


Champions League Contenders Clash at White Hart Lane
Two resurgent sides, with excellent chances of grabbing a Champions League place, meet at White Hart Lane on Saturday. Spurs have the same home record as the league leaders - Manchester United - and are now unbeaten in 13 consecutive home games in all competitions, including a win against Chelsea.

Martin Jol should be feeling confident having qualified for the knockout stages of the UEFA Cup, and semi-finals of the Carling, where he could meet Saturday’s opponents, Liverpool. The Reds have also turned their domestic form around, keeping clean sheets in seven of their last eight Premiership games, and should have got more out of their last game away to Blackburn, where they squandered a number of opportunities, eventually losing 1-0.

Rafa Benitez received a lot of criticism earlier in the year for his continual experimentation with players, but the Spaniard seems to have settled on a successful formation. With both sides in such excellent form Pinnacle Sports are unable to separate them. Liverpool are marginal favourites 1.901 (0/scratch), with Tottenham 2.03 (0/scratch). The history of recent encounters doesn’t provide any evidence of a clear winner either. The last three meetings at White Hart Lane have all been drawn. However, the home side are likely to be without two of the players credited with their excellent recent form – Defoe and Lennon – which, in such a finely balanced game, could be crucial.


Fourth Meets Fifth at Reebok Stadium
Few punters would have wagered that at the turn of the year, Bolton and Portsmouth would meet occupying fourth and fifth places respectively in the Premiership. The Trotters’ success should not be a great shock as Sam Allardyce has made the Reebok one of the division’s hardest venues to get a result. After struggling in November, Bolton were in excellent form leading up to Christmas, winning their last four games, conceding just once. The improved form of Nicolas Anelka has been influential, with the much travelled striker chipping in with four goals in as many games.

Portsmouth looked relegation certainties last season, until Harry Houdini Redknapp returned to rescue the club, so it has been a huge surprise to see the South Coast Club maintain their position close to the top of the Premiership table. Pompey are now unbeaten in their last six fixtures, including visits to Liverpool and Arsenal, venues where last season they were canon-fodder. Goals are coming from all over the pitch, and they will be confident of leap-frogging Bolton in the table with a victory, priced 1.877 by Pinnacle Sports with a 0.5 goal Asian Handicap start, while the home side are 2.05 (-0.5) looking to continue their excellent festive form.

NHL
CAL Flames - LA Kings 1 @ 1.35 stake 4/10 win
NJ Devils - WAS Capitals 1 @ 1.53 stake 7/10 win
MIN Wild - CBS Blue Jackets 1 @ 1.50 stake 6/10 lose
NBA
WAS Wizards - ORL Magic(6) 1 @ 1.91 stake 4/10 lose
GS Warriors - BOS Celtics(9.5) 1 @ 1.91 stake 4/10 win

Trondheim - Lillehammer 1 @ 1.90 stake 4/10 win
Nordsjalland Cobras - Odense Bulldogs 2 @ 1.95 stake 6/10 win
Dallas - Phoenix over214 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 lose

Utrecht - Heracles(handicaps 0:1) 1 @ 1.90 stake7/10 lose

WAS Wizards - MEM Grizzlies(7.5) 2 @ 1.87 stake6/10 lose
GS Warriors - PHI 76ers(6.0) 2 @ 1.92 stake6/10 lose

Willem II - Excelsior 1 @ 2.05 stake 8/10 win
Aberdeen - Kilmarnock 1 @ 1.9 stake 4/10 win
Colchester - Luton 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win
Cardiff - Plymouth 1 @ 1.95 stake 4/10 lose
Everton - Middlesbrough 1 @ 1.90 stake 4/10 lose
Augsburg Panther - ERC Ingolstadt 2 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win

NBA picks:
LA Lakers - MIA Heat over200.5 @ 1.88 stake5/10 lose

EPL, ASTON VILLA v MAN UTD, 0:2 Scholes (23.12.06)

I bet on them!!!

NEO Saints(3) - NY Giants 1 @ 1.87 stake 4/10 win
CIN Bengals - DEN Broncos over44.5 @ 1.91 stake 4/10 win

Ticket of the day:
Aston Villa - Manchester Utd 2 @ 1.6
Wigan - Chelsea 2 @ 1.35
Liverpool - Watford 1 @ 1.2
stake 8/10 WIN

EVV Eindhoven - Telstar 2 @ 2.45 stake 5/10 lose
Emmen - FC Zwolle 1 @ 1.95 stake 5/10 lose
Go Ahead - Cambuur 1 @ 1.75 stake 5/10 win
Volendam - Dordrecht 1 @ 2.05 stake 5/10 lose

Maccabi - Partizan(7) 1 half time @ 1.85 stake10/10 lose
Maccabi - Partizan(13) 1 @ 1.85 stake10/10 lose
Benetton - Barcelona over153 @ 1.85 stake7/10 lose

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble

Taking Advantage of Late Season Motivational Factors in the NFL.As the NFL regular season winds down, teams have different motivations based on their standings. If you disregard this situational factor, you risk betting on a 'trap' game. Which teams are the most likely to underachieve? The obvious answer is the team that has already qualified for the playoffs and benefits little from a win.
One clear example of this is the Chicago Bears. At 12-2, they've not only won their division, but have also secured home field advantage for the duration of the playoffs. A coach's main goal is to enter the playoffs in the strongest condition possible. This often means that 'banged up' players will rest and key starters may play only two quarters or less.
However, remember that the line already reflects this factor - the Bears (12-2) are only 4.5 point favorites over the Lions (2-12) at Pinnacle Sportsbook. Estimating the line using traditional power rankings (like Sagarin ratings), you would expect the Bears to be favored by about 20 points. The difference - in this case, about 16 points - is how much worse Chicago will play by bringing its 'B-game' to Ford Field.
While the Bears situation is an obvious time to deflate a line, there are less obvious instances, especially in the last week of the season. While there's a strong incentive to finish in the top two of a conference (to earn a first round bye in the playoffs), there is almost no difference between the #3 and #4 seeds, and between the #5 and #6 seeds. Each pair of seeds must play the same number of games to advance to the Super Bowl, and will almost certainly play the same amount of home games to get there. If a team's winning or losing will not move them out of such a pairing, (e.g. the team will finish at #3 or #4 regardless of how it finishes), this is also a good time to deflate the line.
The last week of the season often has unique opportunities. When analyzing the various playoff scenarios, look for situations where a team playing late has its game become meaningless IF a certain result occurs in the early games. This provides a rare opportunity to bet on 'The Holy Grail' of sports betting - the correlated parlay.
For example: Team A plays late, team B plays early. Team A advances as a wild card if B loses, or if A wins. If both occur, Team A still gets a wild card. In this example, team A's late game becomes meaningless if B loses. When a game becomes meaningless, the game line for the team that advanced will often crash at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. Some sports books will take these games off the board during the first game because the spread on the late game can change dramatically based on what happens early.
To best exploit this, make the correlated parlay: Team B to lose (moneyline), parlayed with Team A to lose (spread or ML). Be sure to do this before game day though, in case some of these correlated games are taken off the board.
What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports Book?
Kansa City -6.5 -108 v. Oakland
We initially opened the Raiders at +1 (-104) on Sunday. After getting blanked by St. Louis 20-0 in Oakland, the spread quickly climbed to +6.5 as Chiefs backers outnumbered Raiders backers by a 3-to-1 margin. Although no coach ever tries to lose, the 2-12 Raiders may be better off losing out - they are currently tied with Detroit for the #1 draft pick next year. As always, the sharps got the early number, taking the Chiefs -1 and now the sharper players are passing on both sides at +6.5.
At 7-7, Kansas City is a long shot to even get a wild card. There are three teams in the AFC wild card chase at 8-6, and another three tied with Kansas City at 7-7. That makes this match-up and next week's against Jacksonville 'must-win' games for the Chiefs. Must-win match-ups are overrated in the minds of bettors - teams that must win to advance to the playoffs still win about 50% of the time.
Chicago -4.5 -105 v. Detroit
The Lions opened at +7 (-104) at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, but it drifted down across the market due to the Bears playing a meaningless game. The Chicago Bears 'Chalk Talk' discussed the likelihood of resting players with minor injuries. Despite the downward line movement, we received five times as many bets on the Bears as the Lions.
An old handicapping adage thought that the home field advantage increased in the final two weeks of the season. At one point, it was profitable to blindly bet home teams in the last two games. But in the last five years, home teams are 91-67 straight up (57.5%), but only 69-88 against the spread in the final two weeks. This is an example of the market 'overcorrecting' to a betting trend that was strong in the past. As with all technical trends, do not follow them blindly.
Philadelphia +7 -108 v. Dallas
The Eagles were all but forgotten with the loss of Donovan McNabb earlier this year. Since then, Jeff Garcia has led Philadelphia to three consecutive wins in four starts. As a result, the Eagles are a front-runner in the wild card hunt and a division title is even possible. In this NFC East battle, the Eagles opened at +7.5 (-104), but were quickly bet down. The sharps and public alike backed the Eagles by a 5-to-2 margin. The wise guys have continued to bet the Eagles, even at +7.
Arizona State +7 -110 v. Hawaii
We opened Hawaii as a 10-point favorite, relying on their large 'home field' advantage when playing in Honolulu. Although the Sun Devils finished 7-5, all of its losses were to Pac-10 opponents and four of those were ranked in the top 25. Hawaii finished 10-3, but played an easier schedule and went 0-2 against teams in the top 25. As always, the sharps took the best numbers on Arizona State, betting them as low as +7.5.

Euroleague :
Dinamo-Tau 1 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose
Olympiakos BC - Climamio BO(5) 1 half time @ 1.85 stake4/10 win
Olympiakos BC - Climamio BO over163 @ 1.85 stake 8/10 lose
Lottomatica - Union Olimpija under148 @ 1.85 stake4/10 lose
DKV Joventut - Unicaja(2.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 3/10 win
Italy - Serie A :
Torino-Roma 2 @1.95 stake4/10 win
Netherlands - Jupiler League :
RBC Roosendaal v Den Bosch 1 @ 1.65 stake 6/10 win

Real Madrid - Crvena Zvezda(10) 1 @ 1.85 stake10/10 WIN
BC Ventspils - Strasbourg(5) 2 @ 1.85 stake7/10 lose
Eiffel Towers - UNICS Kazan over164 @ 1.85 stake5/10 win
Liverpool - Arsenal 1 @ 1.85 stake6/10 delayed

Munchen1860-Aue 1 @ 1.95 stake 4/10 win
Sacramento(2.5)-Dallas 2 @ 1.85 stake 3/10 win
Columbus-Detroit 2 @ 2.05 stake 3/10 lose

Real Sociedad - Tarragona 1 @ 1.95 stake3/10 win
Villarreal - Osasuna 1 @ 2.1 stake 4/10 lose
Espanyol - Real Madrid 2 @ 1.95 stake 6/10 win

france ligue 1
Le Mans v Toulouse 1 @ 2.1 stake 3/10 win
ice hockey - nhl
OTW Senators - BUF Sabres 2 @ 1.55 stake 3/10 lose

Turnaround Jumper at the Buzzer for the Win

Crvena Zvezda - FMP over163 @ 1.85 stake 6/10 lose
Benetton - Upea C. d Orlando(5) 1 first half @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose
Wigan - Sheffield Utd 1 @ 1.95 stake 6/10 lose
Motherwell v Dundee Utd. 1 @ 2.25 stake 4/10 lose
Elche - Murcia 1 @ 2.7 stake 3/10 lose

GS Warriors v PHX Suns(-12) 2 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 lose
MIA Heat v WAS Wizards(-11.0) 2 @ 1.85 stake 3/10 win

EUROLEAGUE

Barcelona - Pau Orthez over153 @ 1.85 stake4/10 win
Prokom(1) - Efes Pilsen 1 @ 1.85 stake 3/10 lose
Unicaja - Maccabi over 159 @ 1.85 stake6/10 lose
Partizan - Lottomatica(3.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win

EUROLEAGUE
CSKA Moscow - Eldo Napoli(7) 1 half time @ 1.85 stake 7/10 win
TAU Cerámica - Olympiakos BC over 163 @ 1.85 stake 7/10 lose
TAU Cerámica - Olympiakos BC(4.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 8/10 win
Climamio - Le Mans(7) 2 @ 1.85 stake 8/10 lose

ULEB CUP
UNICS Kazan - KK Red Star(6) 1 @ 1.85 stake 7/10 win
UNICS Kazan - KK Red Star over167 @ 1.85 stake 8/10 lose
Lietuvos Rytas - Sluc Nancy(8) 2 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 win

PHX Suns v ORL Magic over209 @ 1.91 stake 4/10 lose

Lille OSC v St. Etienne 1 @1.85 stake4/10 lose
Athletic Bilbao v Huelva 1 @ 2.2 stake3/10 win
VfL Wolfsburg - Alemannia Aachen 1 @1.9 stake 4/10 lose
Chelsea-Arsenal 1 @ 1.85 stake6/10 lose

Milano – Benetton(5) 2 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose
Girona – Gran Canaria(10) 2 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose
Estudiantes – Pamesa(2.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose
Ajax – AZ 1 @ 2.15 stake 3/10 lose
Ajax - AZ over3.5 @ 2.65 stake 2/10 win
Granada – Menorca(5.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 3/10 win

Nate Robinson REJECTS Yao Ming!!

It was about 2 weeks ago , but it's still very interesting!!!

Cardiff - Ipswich Town 1 @ 1.95 stake4/10 lose
Porthmadog - Cwmbran 1 @ 2.25 stake 4/10 lose
St. Truiden - Roeselare 1 @ 1.95 stake 4/10 lose
Morecambe - Stafford 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win

FC St. Pauli - Wuppertaler SV 1 @ 1.9 stake 3/10 lose
RBC Roosendaal - Agovv Apeldoorn 1 @ 1.3 stake 3/10 win
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Hertha BSC Berlin over2.5 @ 1.6 stake 3/10 win

Dinamo-Efes under143 @1.85 stake5/10 lose
Cibona-Lottomatica RM(4.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose
Benetton-Napoli (5) 1 half time @ 1.85 stake5/10 win
Union Olimpija - DKV Joventut under155 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 win
Barcelona-Aris(5) 1 half time @ 1.85 stake5/10 win
Benetton-Napoli (9.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose

Fenerbahce - CSKA under146 @ 1.85 stake 7/10 win
Fenerbahce(6.5) - CSKA 2 @ 1.85 stake 8/10 win
Le Mans(6.5) - TAU Cerámica 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win
Unicaja - Partizan under148 @ 1.85 stake 7/10 win
Keln - Olympiakos over 156 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win

ICE HOCKEY DENMARK
Sonderjylland - Nordsjalland Cobras 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win
ULEB CUP
KK Hemofarm - Lietuvos Rytas under163 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win
Sluc Nancy - Brose Baskets(8.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win

Crvena Zvezda - Paok(8) 1 @ 1.85 stake6/10 lose
Hapoel - Khimki over162 @ 1.85 stake 5/10 lose
Ostende - Lukoil(3.5) 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 lose

Keln-Duisburg 1 @ 2.05 stake7/10 lose

DAL Cowboys - NY Giants over43 @ 1.85 stake6/10 lose

Fiorentina – Lazio 1 @ 1.90 stake 5/10 win
Barcelona – San Fernando(6) 1 @ 1.85 stake 4/10 win
Upea Capo d’Orlando(2) – Napoli 1 @ 1.85 stake 3/10 win

Ticket of the day
Karlsruhe – AUE 1 @ 1.85 lose
Real Madrid – Bilbao 1 @ 1.2 win
stake 5/10

Vitesse - PSV Eindhoven 2 @ 1.4 win
AS Roma - Atalanta 1 @ 1.35 win
Salzburg - Altach 1 @ 1.25 lose
stake 4/10

Waregem - Moeskroen 1 @ 2.05 stake6/10 lose

Roeselare - Mons 1 @ 1.8 stake 7/10 win

Sedan - Troyes 1 @ 2.25 stake 6/10 lose

Auxerre - Nice 1 @ 1.95 stake 5/10 lose

Agovv - EVV Eindhoven 1 @ 1.65 stake 5/10 win
Den Bosch - Volendam 1 @ 2.00 stake 5/10 win
FC Zwolle - Haarlem 1 @ 2.10 stake 5/10 win
Maastricht - De Graafschap 2 @ 2.00 stake 5/10 win
Venlo - Emmen 1 @ 1.7 stake 5/10 win

Tip of the day:
Beveren - Anderlecht 2 @ 1.55 stake 7/10 lose